Sponsored by:
Assemblyman ANDREW MACURDY
District 21 (Middlesex, Morris, Somerset and Union)
Assemblyman ROY FREIMAN
District 16 (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset)
Assemblyman CLINTON CALABRESE
District 36 (Bergen and Passaic)
Co-Sponsored by:
Assemblyman Miller and Assemblywoman Rowan
SYNOPSIS
“Long-Term Budget Outlook Act”; requires State Treasurer to prepare and submit annual multi-year fiscal outlook analysis report.
CURRENT VERSION OF TEXT
As introduced.
An Act concerning multi-year expenditure and revenue forecasting, designated as the “Long-Term Budget Outlook Act,” and supplementing Title 52 of the Revised Statutes.
Be It Enacted by the Senate and General Assembly of the State of New Jersey:
(1) an itemized statement of the anticipated amount of all appropriations from the State General Fund, other budgeted State revenues, other dedicated funds, and Federal aid and trust funds, as shall be recommended pursuant to paragraph (2) of subsection C. of section 11 of Article 3 of P.L.1944, c.112 (C.52:27B-20). The anticipated amounts shall be projected using a current services basis of budgeting and adjusted using economic metrics, including, but not limited to, program-specific inflation metrics, previously-enacted program expansions and eliminations, and caseload or population changes. The analysis shall include a statement explaining the underlying assumptions and methods used to calculate the amounts anticipated pursuant to this paragraph, including the assumptions underlying the optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline economic scenarios. The analysis shall include estimates of the amounts necessary to pay principal and interest due on capital projects financed through the issuance of general obligations bonds and appropriation-backed contract bonds issued by independent authorities of the State; and
(2) a projection of anticipated revenues from all sources applicable to those budget periods and an estimate of all balances projected to be on hand and available for appropriation upon the conclusion of each fiscal year, as such amounts shall be estimated pursuant to paragraph (2) of subsection A. of section 11 of Article 3 of P.L.1944, c.112 (C.52:27B-20). The analysis shall include a statement explaining the underlying assumptions and methods used to calculate the amounts estimated pursuant to this paragraph, including the assumptions underlying the optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline economic scenarios.
b. The State Treasurer shall annually, on or before May 31, or the date of the State Treasurer’s second appearance before the Legislature’s budget committee’s next following the presentation of the Governor’s budget message, whichever occurs earlier, submit an updated multi-year fiscal outlook to the Governor and, pursuant to section 2 of P.L.1991, c.164 (C.52:14-19.1), to the Legislature. The updated multi-year fiscal outlook analysis shall include all information required pursuant to subsection b. of this section and shall include a statement explaining any revisions to the analysis submitted for that fiscal year pursuant to subsection a. of this section.
c. As used in this section, “current services basis of budgeting” means an approach to budgeting that is based on estimating the cost required to maintain benefits, programs, and services at the levels authorized in the Governor’s proposed budget in succeeding fiscal years, as adjusted for changes in enrollment, caseload and population changes, statutory cost-of-living adjustments, and previously-enacted program expansions and eliminations.
2. This act shall take effect immediately.
STATEMENT
The bill requires the multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to include a forecast of the State’s anticipated fiscal position, based on the Governor’s proposed budget for the next fiscal year and for each of the next two succeeding State fiscal years.
For each State fiscal year, the analysis is required to include an itemized statement of the anticipated amount of all appropriations, revenues, and fund balance as well as distinct projections of any structural deficit, based on the optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline economic scenario for each State fiscal year.
The bill requires the anticipated amounts of appropriations in each State fiscal year to be estimated using a current services basis of budgeting method and adjusted based on relevant economic metrics and programmatic adjustments. Current services budgeting is a method used to project what the State would have to spend on a given program to maintain the program at its currently proposed funding level in the absence of any proposed policy changes. In each case, the bill requires the multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to include a statement explaining the underlying assumptions and methods used to determine the anticipated amount of revenues and appropriations for each fiscal year, as well as the optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline economic scenarios.
The bill also directs the State Treasurer to submit the multi-year fiscal outlook analysis twice each year. The bill requires the multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to be submitted either on or before April 1, or on the date of the State Treasurer’s first appearance before the Legislature’s budget committees following the Governor’s budget message, whichever occurs earlier, and once on or before May 31, or on the date of the State Treasurer’s second appearance before the Legislature’s budget committees during their consideration of the Governor’s proposed budget. The bill also requires the updated multi-year fiscal outlook analysis to include a statement explaining any revisions to the initial analysis submitted for that year.